321
FXUS01 KWBC 052016
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2025
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 06 2025 - 00Z MON SEP 08 2025
...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
PROBABLE FOR THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ...
...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION...
...FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES ARE ACTIVE FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE COOL,
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...
ON SATURDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN SPINE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR AREAS MOSTLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW
ENGLAND. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS FROM VIRGINIA TO GEORGIA, SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY WET MICRO-BURST, BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS, THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOREOVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE, PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS
OF LORENA NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA, DIURNAL HEATING, AND UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY.
BURN SCARS AND SENSITIVE TERRAIN COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHEAST IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD
BRING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OR TWO OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND/OR
OVER URBAN AREAS. ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO TEXAS AND
INTERACT WITH A FRONT TO BRING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL THREAT HAS DECREASED FROM EARLIER FORECAST
THIS WEEK, BUT STILL STAY TUNED TO THE SKIES. LASTLY, A TROPICAL
AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER FLORIDA AND MAY FOSTER LOCALLY HEAVY
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATER PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A COLD, CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. AS THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PER
THIS AFTERNOON'S SURFACE ANALYSIS. THIS ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY AIR
MASS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER HAS PROMPTED WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES TO
ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREAS ABOVE MAY REACH OR FALL BELOW 32 F. THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE
POTENTIAL DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
PLAINS WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE
COOL MORNING LOWS, MOSTLY IN THE 40S, WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
THE NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL-LIKE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE LOW 70S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL BE DOMINANT ON SUNDAY AFTER A THREAT FOR A SQUALL LINE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT.
I ALSO WANTED TO MENTION THE POOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OUT WEST FROM
WILDFIRES. A LOT OF WESTERN WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED
AIR QUALITY ALERTS. SENSITIVE POPULATIONS SHOULD TRY TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE TO OUTSIDE SMOKE AND SO ACTIVITIES INDOORS. SMOKE LOOKS
TO REMAIN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.
WILDER
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