851
FXCA20 KWBC 081841
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 SEPTEMBER 2025 AT 1840 UTC:
THE TROPICAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE A SEASONABLE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
LAND AREAS WILL BE ENHANCED BY LOCAL AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS,
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY INFLUENCED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC INTO WESTERN MEXICO, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE
OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY, BUT IT IS MOVING IN
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE, WHICH IS BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE IMPACTS, IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MODEST, HOWEVER. OVERALL, THE AREAS WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF MEXICO, PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ALSO, THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC, GIVING IT A 50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN 7 DAYS, PER THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, WHILE A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE GULF TO ITS EAST. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER HIGH THAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
AND THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE MID LEVELS SHOW A GENERAL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVELS,
PARTICULARLY THE STRONGER FEATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IS OBSERVED IN THE MID LEVELS, AS
WELL AS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THAT SAID, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND THE MID LEVELS DONâ€T
SHOW MORE THAN A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURES WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF DEEPER
CONVECTION AT THE BASE AND EAST OF THE TROUGHS AXES, WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURES WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LEVELS MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS, TO CAUSE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME AREAS.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC, WHICH IS DOMINATING THE OVERALL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH THERE WILL
BE A FEW PERTURBATIONS AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF IS CAUSING MOISTURE TO CONVERGE
OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE TRADES, WHILE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC, CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA, MAY
BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC
COAST, EXPECTING IT TO BE JUST SOUTH OF OAXACA OF MEXICO BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
APPROXIMATE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12
UTC
INIT TYPE SOF 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12
12/00 12/12
TW 15N 53W 55W 58W 61W 65W 70W 72W
75W 76W
TW 21N 86W 88W 90W 92W 94W 96W 98W
101W 102W
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