100
FXUS01 KWBC 081955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2025
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 09 2025 - 00Z THU SEP 11 2025
...THERE ARE AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST FROM
WILDFIRES, AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST HAVE FROST
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING...
THE WEST WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS AN
UPPER-LOW/SURFACE FRONT NEARS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, INCLUDING ISOLATED SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING CHANCES...
FIRES OUT WEST AND IN CANADA HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING HEALTH
CONCERNS FOR LOW AIR QUALITY TODAY ACROSS MOSTLY WASHINGTON STATE
AND PORTIONS OF IDAHO. MODEL SMOKE PLUMES CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES
OF LOW AIR QUALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONTO THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE COUNTRY, FROST ADVISORIES ARE ACTIVE ACROSS COUNTIES IN THE
UPSTATE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE 30S IN TYPICAL COOL SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD
MONITOR FOR HAZARDS TO VEGETATION AND CROPS.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST FROM MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT MONDAY, ADVANCING TO THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL SERVE AS A SOURCE OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND INCREASE
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE TO RAISE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
INTERIOR WEST. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM FOR AREAS
OF HIGH TERRAIN FROM EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CASCADES
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON TUESDAY AND THEN WEDNESDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN
INCREASE EASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION STARTING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS, AS WELL AS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
SCATTERED, BUT SPC IS CALLING FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO
CONTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THIS IS
IN LARGE PART DUE TO SUPPORTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
NEAR THE SURFACE FROM DIURNAL HEATING. FOR FLASH FLOODING, WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED EASTERN KANSAS AS AN AREA TO BE AWARE OF. WEAK
STEERING FLOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE ABOVE THE
SURFACE, AND THE PRESENCE OF A LEE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT OVER
ACHIEVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT COULD BRING SOME INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
THE FORECAST FOR FLORIDA CALLS FOR THE PERSISTENCE METHOD AS ONCE
AGAIN A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, WILL ENHANCE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED WATER
PONDING AND MOSTLY NUISANCE FLOODING. ALSO, THE FRONT MAY BRING
ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD SERVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MAYBE SOME HOPE ON THE HORIZON AS SOME
MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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