930
FXCA20 KWBC 101940
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 SEPTEMBER 2025 AT 1930 UTC:
SYNOPSIS
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST, EAST AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE ENHANCEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS
WAVE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 90% CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OUTLOOK. IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AN AREA OF
INTEREST FOR PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY IS NICARAGUA.
IN THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, LARGELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING PANAMANIAN
LOW. IN THE CARIBBEAN MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUIET DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR WITH THE PROPAGATION OF
SAHARAN DUST, WHILE THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE STATIONARY FRONT. IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, WITH
HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED RECENTLY. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OF MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED 96W, COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE WILL BE A KEY
DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FROM
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS REGION COULD
RANGE FROM 20MM TO 50MM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL AND MOUNTAINOUS ZONES.
FURTHER NORTH, ALONG NORTHWEST MEXICO, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA/SINALOA, WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD, HELPING TO BRING ONSHORE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE GULF AND
EASTERN MEXICO, ENHANCING DIVERGENCE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
PARTICULARLY FOR VERACRUZ INTO YUCATAN.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS,
PARTICULARLY FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW.
BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
IN THE BAHAMAS A STATIONARY FRONT, CURRENTLY POSITIONED EAST OF
THE U.S AND INTO THE GULF WILL HELP GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS,
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15MM TO 30MM.
IN CUBA, A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION, MOSTLY IN
THE EASTERN REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA, WITH
LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS,
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY ISOLATED.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OBSERVED EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK THE PRIMARY
DRIVERS WILL BE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL HEATING,
AND LOCAL EFFECTS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS IS
EXPECTED IN COLOMBIA. OVER BRAZIL, HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
REGION.
APPROXIMATE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES
TYPE SOF 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12
TW 19N 71W 74W 78W 81W 84W 88W 91W
TW 16N 96W 98W 100W --- --- --- ---
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