307
FXUS01 KWBC 111901
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 12 2025 - 00Z SUN SEP 14 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...
...CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTING
TO LINGER AND BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA, WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND SOIL SATURATION, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST, INCLUDING NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY TRAVEL OVER
INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH AMPLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS WITHIN SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FROM THIS
TROUGH WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AS MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S. HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
BY LATE WEEK, THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY TREK EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS AND KANSAS.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S., TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY WITHIN THE 90S, ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
WITHIN A MINOR TO MODERATE CRITERIA FOR HEATRISK.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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