002
FXUS01 KWBC 120736
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 12 2025 - 12Z SUN SEP 14 2025
...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, HIGH
PLAINS, AND SOUTH FLORIDA; ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...
...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE; WARM WEATHER FORECAST DOWNWIND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...
AS HAS BEEN THE STORY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITHIN THE LOWER 48 WILL GENERALLY FOCUS ATOP PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, HIGH PLAINS, AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE FLANK(S)
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SANDWICHED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WEST,
THE HEAVIEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER-TROUGH TAPS INTO A FETCH OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVERHEAD, LEADING TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND AN EMERGING COLD FRONT SHOULD MIGRATE THE HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW, WITH A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF IMPACTS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE,
IN THE EAST, URBAN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WITH STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A STUBBORN
STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT, RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL (GENERALLY IN THE 70'S-80'S). IN STARK CONTRAST TO
THE WEST, SOME OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SEE WARM, ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ECLIPSING THE MID-UPPER 90'S THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS HOT WEATHER
COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING OR
HYDRATION, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND,
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., ALTHOUGH
AS OF NOW HEAT IMPACTS BEYOND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
ASHERMAN
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