861
FXUS01 KWBC 131950
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 14 2025 - 00Z TUE SEP 16 2025
...ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
HIGH PLAINS, AND MIDWEST; SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND CHOPPY SEAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST; PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO COOL OFF IN WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...
...MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE UNFOLDING IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY; WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO
THE NORTHEAST...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND TO KICK-OFF THE UPCOMING
WORK-WEEK, THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WITH
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ARE MOST
AT-RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING. THESE RISKS ARE
HIGHLIGHTED BY BOTH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND STORM
PREDICTION CENTER AS BOTH NATIONAL CENTERS HAVE SLIGHT RISKS
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A MARGINAL RISK THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER ON SOUTH TO CENTRAL KANSAS. SPC HAS
AN EVEN LENGTHIER MARGINAL RISK THAT GOES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH NORTH DAKOTA MOST
AT-RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE
WEATHER.
ELSEWHERE, AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A SHOT
OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THE FRONT WILL ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, THEN
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OFF THE
EAST COAST, A DAWDLING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY INCH ITS
WAY WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE POINT WERE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON NORTH TO
THE COASTLINES OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LASTLY, A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
AND THROUGH SUNDAY. WPC DOES HAVE A SMALL MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF INDIANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COOLS OFF, MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NOT FULLY SHAKE
SUMMER'S GRASP JUST YET. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
NORMAL WILL BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S.
SOME PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN MIRED
IN AN ONGOING MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL. FARTHER EAST, UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND GREAT LAKES
ON EAST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ALSO
BE SEASONALLY COOL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE START OF THE WEEK.
MULLINAX
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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