892
FXUS01 KWBC 140817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 14 2025 - 12Z TUE SEP 16 2025
...ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY, THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY; SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...
...COASTAL STORM BREWING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COOLS OFF IN WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...
...MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE PERSISTING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A WAVY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE IMPETUS FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP
AND DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, A
MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE AND
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER
NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG A
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER ON MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MORE DIFFUSE ON MONDAY.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS HEAT FROM THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A
COASTAL STORM IS BREWING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND HEAD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM, REMINISCENCE OF A COLD-SEASON
NOR'EASTER, WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY. TUESDAY
MORNING COULD SEE THE CORE OF THIS COASTAL STORM MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW INCHES OF WIND-SWEPT RAIN PUSHING FARTHER INLAND THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE WILL
DELIVER A SHOT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COOLS OFF, MUCH OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NOT FULLY SHAKE
SUMMER'S GRASP JUST YET. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
NORMAL WILL BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S.
SOME PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN MIRED
IN AN ONGOING MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL. FARTHER EAST, UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND GREAT LAKES
ON EAST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ALSO
BE SEASONALLY COOL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE START OF THE WEEK.
KONG/MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page