359
FXUS01 KWBC 141938
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VALID 00Z MON SEP 15 2025 - 00Z WED SEP 17 2025
...ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, THEN
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY; SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...
...COASTAL STORM BREWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COOLS OFF IN WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...
...MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE PERSISTING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED FRONT WILL
FOSTER ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP AND DOWN THE
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER ON
MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE DIFFUSE ON MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWEST WILL SET OFF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AND HEAD TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM, REMINISCENT OF A COLD-SEASON
NOR'EASTER, WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, THE CORE OF THIS COASTAL STORM MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WIND-SWEPT RAIN PUSHING FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE, A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ASHORE ALONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL DELIVER A SHOT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, THEN
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, AFTER WITNESSING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND MONDAY, HOTTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS RETURN BY TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY WILL NOT FULLY SHAKE SUMMER'S GRASP JUST YET. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL WILL RESIDE IN THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. SOME PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN MIRED IN AN ONGOING MID-SEPTEMBER
HEAT WAVE WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE IN THESE REGIONS AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH
FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND GREAT LAKES ON EAST TO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALSO BE SEASONALLY COOL
GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK.
MULLINAX/KONG
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