276
FXUS01 KWBC 150805
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VALID 12Z MON SEP 15 2025 - 12Z WED SEP 17 2025
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY; MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND RELOAD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...
...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE PERSISTING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST...
THE WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE RECENT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND
THEN DISSIPATE.
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND
HEAD TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM, REMINISCENT OF A COLD-SEASON NOR'EASTER, WILL LIKELY BRING
A ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE CORE OF THIS COASTAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW
INCHES OF WIND-SWEPT RAIN PUSHING FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THE RAIN EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION,
POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DELIVER A SHOT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEW MEXICO. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, A CONVERGENCE OF DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE SOME OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AND CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. MEANWHILE, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOL AIR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE BRIEF COOLDOWN IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND TO VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NOT FULLY SHAKE SUMMER'S GRASP JUST
YET. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL WILL RESIDE IN
THE UPPER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. SOME PORTIONS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN MIRED IN AN ONGOING
MID-SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING DAILY
RECORD HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE IN THESE
REGIONS AS WELL. FARTHER EAST, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND GREAT LAKES ON EAST TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALSO BE
SEASONALLY COOL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
KONG/MULLINAX
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