506
FXUS01 KWBC 151846
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 16 2025 - 00Z THU SEP 18 2025
...SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MARIO TO BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WHERE WET WEATHER OCCURS NEXT
TWO DAYS, OTHERWISE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...
THE LARGE SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED, RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE CONUS. ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS, WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH TWO DAY TOTALS OF 2-5" POSSIBLE. THESE
AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA IN DO (ABNORMALLY DRY) DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOW AS IT EMERGES
INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE RAINS WILL BRING RELIEF TO
AREAS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT ARE
EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY (D0)TO MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)
CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS THAT
MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO
GREATER RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA, MAY BEING TO
IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE PUSHING
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE
MARIO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD, THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS INTO FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL
CALIFORNIA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY, WITH THESE SHOWERS
PUSHING FARTHER NORTH INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL SEE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE LAST FULL
WEEK OF SUMMER. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REGIONS WHERE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHERE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
ORAVEC
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