166
FXUS01 KWBC 161856
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VALID 00Z WED SEP 17 2025 - 00Z FRI SEP 19 2025
...SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MARIO BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WHERE WET WEATHER OCCURS NEXT
TWO DAYS, OTHERWISE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA,
VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF MARYLAND. WITH RAIN RATES
EXPECTED TO REACH 1-2"/HR AND CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND AN INCREASE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF VIRGINA. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTERN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AS THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY,
MOISTURE, AND LIFT, STORM PREDICITION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN COLORODO/WYOMING. ALONG WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OTHER HAZARDS SUPPORTED BY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
POSSIBLE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUST, AND RISK FOR LOW-PROBABILITY
TORNADOS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA, WILL BEGIN TO
POSSIBLY IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE PUSHING FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE MARIO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD, THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY, WITH THESE SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER NORTH INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. OVERALL, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE BENEFICIAL, AS
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN NOTABLY DRY. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THAT MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. HAS BEEN DRIER THAN
NORMAL OVER THE PAST MONTH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEEING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL OVER THE PLAINS,
WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
OUDIT/KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page