323
FXUS01 KWBC 170832
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
VALID 12Z WED SEP 17 2025 - 12Z FRI SEP 19 2025
...COASTAL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
..TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MARIO REACHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WHERE WET WEATHER OCCURS NEXT
TWO DAYS, OTHERWISE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...
A COASTAL STORM, REMINISCENCE OF A COLD-SEASON NOR'EASTER, HAS
MADE LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN SHORES OF VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE STEADILY WEAKENS OVER LAND. BANDS
OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY, WITH
SOME OF THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
BY THURSDAY, THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY
SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING DURING
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT DIPPING FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER-LOW WILL BE IN A SLOW PROCESS TO ROLL
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
FORM OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORM POTENTIALS WILL BE LOWERED. NEVERTHELESS, A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIO, WHICH HAS BECOME POST
TROPICAL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA, IS FORECAST TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS TODAY, WITH THESE SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER NORTH
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. OVERALL, ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE
BENEFICIAL, AS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN NOTABLY DRY. A GENERAL HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY UP THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS WIND-FACING TERRAINS. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL ALSO
WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEEING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
ARE IN THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE, THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE, TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE KEYS WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST LOCATION
WHERE 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
KONG
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