197
FXUS01 KWBC 180810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
VALID 12Z THU SEP 18 2025 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2025
...AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MARIO PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...
...THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH
TH 90S...
THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CENTERED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI FOR TODAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS SHOULD BE SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG
WIND GUST OR TWO. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE GENERAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
GENERALLY FAVORING SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL FOR TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST, THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVECT IN MODEST
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FOR AN ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY STORM OR
TWO.
POST TROPICAL MARIO CONTINUES TO BRING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR
SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA, PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1-3" AND RAINFALL RATES >1"/HR, AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SENSITIVE TERRAIN AND
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION. NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA WILL ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE REST OF THE CONUS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AS A MORE ZONAL
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE. THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL
BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION AND FROM
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NUMEROUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA, WITH URBAN AREAS BEING THE MOST SENSITIVE TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PART OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
WILDER/OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP CLEAR:
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