014
FXUS01 KWBC 181905
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 19 2025 - 00Z SUN SEP 21 2025
...AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM MARIO PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...
...THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH
THE 90S...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL GRADUALLY START TO DISASSEMBLE AND MOVE A BIT
EASTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH, THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. THEREFORE, COMBINING SOME OF THESE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS WITH THE SUFFICIENT UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THERE IS
STILL A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
REMNANTS OF MARIO CONTINUES TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. DUE TO RAINFALL
TOTALS POSSIBLY REACHING 2-4" WITH RAINFALL RATES AT >1-2"HR,
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACES PARTS OF CALIFORNIA (MOSTLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION,
SEVERAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN UNDER A FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH FRIDAY; FOLLOW YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION. WITH SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL EXPECT CHANCES
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE REMAINING
MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND RAIN RATES BETWEEN 2-3"/HR, WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER
FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, PARTS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS A ZONAL
PATTERN START TO SET IN. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE START TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW TO MID
90S, WHICH WILL BE BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OUDIT
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