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FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEPTEMBER 19 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2025
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A PRONOUNCED WAVE TRAIN IS
DEPICTED, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. CONVERSELY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND EASTERN SIBERIA, THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
0Z ECENS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH, AND THE 0Z CMCE
DEPICTS A STRONGER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECENS AND GEFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
TODAY’S 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A 150-METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ADDITIONAL TROUGHING APPROACHING WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA LEADS TO NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE ALEUTIANS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
AS RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CLOSEST TO THE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY MAXIMUM.
DESPITE CLOSER TO OR BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, MODELS
STILL FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST
LIKELY TIED TO INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE INCREASE IN TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
FAVORS REDUCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DUE IN PART TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, TIED TO ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
SOME DISCREPANCY WITHIN THE FORECAST TOOLS. ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUPPORTS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM, CLOSER TO THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND ELEVATED WET SIGNALS IN THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, ALSO TIED TO A POTENTIAL AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST TIED TO AN
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF INCOMING
TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK OVER ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2025
EARLY IN WEEK-2, ANOMALOUS RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS EXTENDING INTO CANADA, WITH WEAK TROUGHS FAVORED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE, ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE
PERIOD, THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CONUS, RESULTING IN WEAKER MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS COMPARED TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z GEFS IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD. THE 0Z ECENS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GEFS
DEPICT A GREATER DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. THE WEEK-2
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WITH A BROAD AREA OF
+30 METER HEIGHT ANOMALIES NOW EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. CLOSER TO NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO TROUGHING. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH A MORE VARIABLE HEIGHT PATTERN IN BETWEEN
TROUGHS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII AS RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CONUS TIED TO RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AS WELL AS
INCREASING PACIFIC FLOW AS THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
SUPPORTS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, WITH THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL NOW AGREEING WITH THE COOLER
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE. THE UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUED
POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES OVER THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS BROADLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA TIED TO TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
RESPECTIVELY. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE AREA
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND INTO MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE TOOLS, WITH THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE GENERALLY DRIER THAN THE REFORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST TOOLS. WEAKLY
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MOST OF
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATED FORECAST TOOL. NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A SIMILAR 500-HPA PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT OFFSET DUE TO
DECREASING AMPLIFICATION AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE TOOLS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090914 - 20090909 - 20020830 - 20010925 - 19670914
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090914 - 20090909 - 20020829 - 20081002 - 20090919
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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