351
FXUS01 KWBC 201908
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2025
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 21 2025 - 00Z TUE SEP 23 2025
...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AS SUMMER DRAWS TO A CLOSE...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY ON DOWN THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GOING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE SUFFICIENT AREAS OF RAINFALL
FOR THERE TO BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE
ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL.
SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHERE
LOCALLY STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN TEXAS. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES MAY SEE DAMAGING WINDS IMPACTING THESE
AREAS AS SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP HERE. A THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATER MONDAY AS A NEW COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND, MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL FACILITATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES GOING INTO MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE, MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HERE. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING TO THE NORMALLY MORE SENSITIVE DRY WASH AND BURN
SCAR LOCATIONS.
AS SUMMER DRAWS TO A CLOSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS
LARGE AREAS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE
MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, EXPECT AREAS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
ESPECIALLY BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOCALLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CROSSES
THESE AREAS.
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