184
FXUS01 KWBC 210725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 21 2025 - 12Z TUE SEP 23 2025
...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AS SUMMER DRAWS TO A CLOSE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ENERGETIC SLOW-MOVING UPPER-TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE HELPING TO SUPPORT AN UPWARD
TREND IN HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES IN EACH OF THE COMING DAYS.
CLUSTERING OF STORMS ALONG FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR
SUNDAY, THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS CENTERED ON THE MO/KS/AR/OK BORDER
REGION, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) NOW
IN EFFECT. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEN, ON
MONDAY, THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL
STRETCH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
OZARKS VICINITY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER LEVELS OF THREAT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MORE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. A MORE CONCENTRATED, GREATER THREAT FOR
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY EXPECTED ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
VICINITY ON TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE, DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY, AND
EXPANDING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY. TO THE NORTH, A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF
SUMMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS, WITH 70S AND 80S FOR THE MIDWEST WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME LOCALLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, WILL REMAIN COOLER AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST; THE 70S
AND 80S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES VICINITY, AND CALIFORNIA; AND
90S TO LOW 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WARMING TREND WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO 90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND
80S NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY.
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