712
FXUS01 KWBC 211957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
VALID 00Z MON SEP 22 2025 - 00Z WED SEP 24 2025
...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CALIFORNIA WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WEST AS SUMMER DRAWS TO A CLOSE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK. AN ENERGETIC SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE HELPING TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCES IN EACH OF THE COMING DAYS. CLUSTERING OF STORMS ALONG
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT,
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING IS CENTERED ON THE MO/KS/AR/OK BORDER REGION,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) NOW IN
EFFECT. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/5), FOR MAINLY HAIL BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES, IS DELINEATED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER A BIT
FARTHER SOUTHWEST NEAR THE RED RIVER (OK/TX BORDER). THEN, ON
MONDAY, THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL
STRETCH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
OZARKS VICINITY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) IS IN PLACE FOR NOW, BUT
ADDITIONAL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER LEVELS OF THREAT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MORE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. SEVERE WEATHER COULD ALSO BE A THREAT, AND
SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/5) ARE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR PRIMARILY HIGH WIND AND HAIL CONCERNS. A MORE
CONCENTRATED, GREATER THREAT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS
ALREADY EXPECTED ACROSS THE OZARKS AND VICINITY ON TUESDAY, WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE UPGRADES.
ELSEWHERE, DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SHOULD BRING INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE, AND AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY, AND EXPANDING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW. TO THE NORTH,
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FALL EQUINOX. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID-90S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A HANDFUL OF RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER TEXAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SHOULD
STRETCH FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WHILE A
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY, WITH MAINLY 70S IN
THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COOLS INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS UNDER THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING THE UPPER LOW. COOLER
AIR PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY,
WHILE THE WEST COAST STATES SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE 80S AND
90S, WITH A FEW LOW 100S POSSIBLE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TATE/PUTNAM
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