896
FXUS01 KWBC 220724
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2025
VALID 12Z MON SEP 22 2025 - 12Z WED SEP 24 2025
...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK FROM THE
MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THREATS
OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CALIFORNIA WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AND WEST
COAST WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER WHILE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROCKIES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FALL AS THE
SEASONS CHANGE...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. A CONTINUAL
FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WILL FUEL HEAVY RAINFALL-PRODUCING
STORMS, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS CLUSTERING ALONG THE
FRONTAL AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORTING LONG-DURATION
RAINFALL AND HEAVY TOTALS. FOR MONDAY, THE CURRENT GREATEST RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS
IN EFFECT. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH, OZARKS, AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5), MAINLY
FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THEN, ON TUESDAY,
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS VICINITY AND MID-SOUTH, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A MUCH BROADER AREA FROM THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALSO COINCIDES FOR MUCH OF THE SAME
REGION ACROSS THE OZARKS VICINITY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX, WITH
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OUTLINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
AN UPPER-LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA
AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER-LOW MEANDERS, AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS WELL. SIGNIFICANTLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY BURN SCARS. ELSEWHERE,
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND UP PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, AS WELL AS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST MONDAY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
ON TUESDAY.
AS THE SEASONS CHANGE MONDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AS WELL AS THE WEST COAST WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE SUMMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S
TO MID-90S WILL BE COMMON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEST THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS. SOME
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. FURTHER NORTH, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
FROM THE NORTHEAST WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND, A
WARM UP WILL COME TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND VICINITY. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60 AND 70S ALONG THE COAST, 70S AND 80S FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND 90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO THE ROCKIES
AND VICINITY. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY BEFORE A WARM-UP BACK INTO THE 70S ON
TUESDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
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