183
FXUS01 KWBC 221943
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2025
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 23 2025 - 00Z THU SEP 25 2025
...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK FROM THE
MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THREATS
OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/CALIFORNIA WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AND WEST
COAST WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER WHILE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ROCKIES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FALL AS THE
SEASONS CHANGE...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BOTH CONSOLIDATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. THIS WILL DRAW IN AMPLE GULF MOISTURE THAT SHOULD POOL
AROUND FRONTAL AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND REACHING THE EAST TOWARD MIDWEEK. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE
GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT. MORE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH, OZARKS, AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A FEW SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/5)--ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA, AND FARTHER EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE OHIO VALLEY SLIGHT RISK IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGH WINDS,
WHILE ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST. THEN, ON
TUESDAY, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OZARKS VICINITY AND MID-SOUTH, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE HEAVY
AND A FEW INCHES OF RAIN COULD PILE UP THERE, AND THIS IS
CONSIDERED A HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALSO COINCIDES FOR MUCH OF THE SAME REGION ACROSS THE
OZARKS VICINITY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A MUCH BROADER
AREA FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OUTLINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA
AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS, AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL. SIGNIFICANTLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY BURN SCARS. ELSEWHERE,
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND UP PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, AS WELL AS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ON TUESDAY.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THROUGH THE
EAST. HIGHS IN THE 90S (AND PERHAPS REACHING 100 DEGREES IN PARTS
OF TEXAS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST) WILL STRETCH THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE EASTERN SEABOARD WARMING INTO THE 80S TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS CAN EXPECT MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES (MORE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS) BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND WITH ENERGY ALOFT, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AND
60S, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10-20 DEGREES. COOLER AIR SHOULD
FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN WARM. IN THE WEST, A
WARMING TREND IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY 70S IN COASTAL
AREAS AND 80S TO 90S INLAND. THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SHOULD WARM EVEN MORE BY WEDNESDAY, BUT CALIFORNIA COULD
COOL SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
TATE/PUTNAM
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