789
FXUS01 KWBC 230736
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 23 2025 - 12Z THU SEP 25 2025
...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...COOLER TEMPERATURES COME TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NOT
ONLY CONTINUE BUT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RISKS OF BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE PLAINS AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST,
DRAWING IN AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO FUEL WIDESPREAD, HEAVY-RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY, STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG FRONTAL WAVES FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH, OZARKS, AND ARKLATEX,
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED MORE BROADLY ACROSS
THE AREA. A SIMILAR REGION FROM THE OZARKS AND VICINITY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL FACE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,
WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLINING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
FOCUSING STORM CHANCES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST/TEXAS. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND RAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS MAY
LEAVE WETTER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PRONE TO SOME SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE NOTED
REGIONS. SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST, A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA CONSOLIDATING WITH
THE EASTWARD MOVING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE WEST, SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, WITH AN
ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER-LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING A RISK HERE
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY BURN SCARS.
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH SOME OF THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY, AND WELL INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY. SIMILARLY
ANOMALOUS HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LOW APPROACHES. THE REST OF THE WEST WILL BE AROUND OR ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND 90S
TO 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S, AND 90S INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WEST THROUGH TEXAS. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER-TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRING
COOLER, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 70S.
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