696
FXUS01 KWBC 231925
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2025
VALID 00Z WED SEP 24 2025 - 00Z FRI SEP 26 2025
...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE
THE NORTHERN TIER HEATS UP...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE-WEATHER RISK WILL BE
THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES, WITH ONE OR TWO OF THESE TORNADOES
POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG, BUT HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY FOR
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SOUTH TEXAS, FLORIDA, AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE DAILY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, WHILE AN UPPER LOW TRIGGERS THUNDERSTORMS IN
CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WHERE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE REGIONS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. LATE THIS WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY BURN SCAR AREAS.
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH SOME OF THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS IN CALIFORNIA UNDER THE
UPPER LOW AND IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. IN THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
DOLAN/PUTNAM
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