000
FXUS01 KWBC 240659
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2025
VALID 12Z WED SEP 24 2025 - 12Z FRI SEP 26 2025
...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRINGING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY WITH
A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...
...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE
THE NORTHERN TIER HEATS UP...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER-TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY,
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED BROADLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST/PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THEN, ON THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EASTWARD, THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEAST
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN TEXAS. WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED, DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ISOLATED, WITH SOME INSTANCES POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/THE GREATER NYC AREA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AN UPPER-LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALONG THE WEST COAST THE
LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY ,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. ON THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO VERY MOIST AIR OVER MEXICO AND DRAW
IT NORTHWARD, BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED. SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS, AS WELL AS FOR URBAN
AREAS. MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SOME OF THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MOST HIGHS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL BE
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 70S IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S TO THE COAST AND
URBAN CORRIDOR WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN HOT, DRY, AND WINDY IN THE
INTERIOR, PROMPTING A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND 90S TO
MID-100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER-LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND OR BELOW AVERAGE, WITH 80S INLAND AND 70S
ALONG THE COST. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST, WITH 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, 80S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND
90S FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME THURSDAY. AFTER HIGHS INTO THE 90S
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE 80S THURSDAY.
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