619
FXUS01 KWBC 250716
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
VALID 12Z THU SEP 25 2025 - 12Z SAT SEP 27 2025
...RISK OF SCATTERED DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY...
...SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE AROUND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRAW RICH GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WOULD BE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH THE RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ISN'T COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY, BUT WILL
SLOW DOWN AND HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.
TO THE WEST, A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN RATES WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND IN MORE VULNERABLE PLACES SUCH AS
SLOT CANYONS, BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN, ETC. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS SOILS
BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED FROM STORMS REPEATEDLY DEVELOPING
AND TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS EACH DAY.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH
VERY DRY AIR AND DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CASCADES INTO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH OVERLAPPING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE IGNITION AND RAPID SPREAD OF NEW AND EXISTING
FIRES.
MILLER
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