569
FXUS01 KWBC 252001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 26 2025 - 00Z SUN SEP 28 2025
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY...
...SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE AROUND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE ACROSS
THE EAST COAST STATES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST WILL BE SLOWING DOWN, AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY SATURDAY, WHILE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOITERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT AND A HUMID
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS VALID ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM
THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER, WHERE 1-2
INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S., WHERE A PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHERE WPC
CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SLOT CANYONS AND BURN SCAR AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO RAPID ONSET FLOODING. THE FLOODING THREAT THEN
FOCUSES MORE OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO GOING INTO SATURDAY, WHILE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHWEST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS IN PLACE.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY WILL IMPROVE GOING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS
THE NORTHWEST STATES.
HAMRICK
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