696
FXUS01 KWBC 260716
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 26 2025 - 12Z SUN SEP 28 2025
...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
...SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE AROUND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
GULF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A COUPLE DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, WHILE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THE THREAT OF CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS, AT LEAST
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BECOMES A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL STRETCH FROM VIRGINIA TO
FLORIDA, BUT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHEST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WAVE OF
LIGHTER AND MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN BY THE TIME MONDAY
ROLLS AROUND.
HEADING OUT WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF AND SPIN OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
THE CUTOFF LOW SITS AND SPINS, IT WILL CONTINUOUSLY DRAW A FETCH
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S., SETTING
THE STAGE FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, INCREASING THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. MORE VULNERABLE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS AND SLOT
CANYONS WITHIN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL BE
MOST AT RISK FOR FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND LARGELY THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RESULTING DRY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TRANSLATING TO HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S AND 80S. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN INTO THE
LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. IN STARK CONTRAST, FOR PLACES IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST THAT ARE CLOUDIER AND STORMIER, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MILLER
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