415
FXCA20 KWBC 261827
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
NOTE: UPDATED DATE
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 SEPTEMBER 2025 AT 1830 UTC:
SYNOPSIS:
TROPICAL WAVE AL94 WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF CUBA, MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA, AND THE BAHAMAS. AL94 CURRENTLY HAS A 90% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS PER THE
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OUTLOOK. IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA, REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NARDA WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY, BEFORE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE PRESENCE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CIRCULATION WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST, WHILE THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
IN THE CENTRAL REGIONS WILL BRING DAILY CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS:
THE ONGOING TROPICAL WAVE AL94, LOCATED AT 73W, WILL CONTINUE
PROVIDING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL AID IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION, AND URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STORM IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT AROUND
100-200MM IN EASTERN CUBA TODAY, WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY IN
ISOLATED AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH 75-150MM EXPECTED BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY. AL94 IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK
NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD, AT WHICH POINT IT IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS,
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OF UP TO 75-150MM EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE, REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA, AS WELL AS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NARDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY FOR NORTHWEST MEXICO BEFORE
LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, MODERATE LAPSE RATES, AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HAIL
TODAY. IN EAST MEXICO, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE, DUE TO MUCH OF THE LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING
OFFSHORE, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
AREAS WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL INFLUENCE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ON
SUNDAY, AFTER THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE, THE LOWER-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW ONSHORE, WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THE VERACRUZ/TABASCO REGION INTO MONDAY.
IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN COASTS, AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF AROUND 25-50MM IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
THE MOISTURE PLUME WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA
TODAY, PARTICULARLY WEST AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO COME FROM THE WEST AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE NORTHWEST OF COLOMBIA, WHERE IT WILL THEN BE TOPOGRAPHICALLY
REDIRECTED INTO THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT, WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA, MOISTURE FROM THE
AMAZON WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DAILY LOCALIZED CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.
TYPE SOF INIT 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12
TW 14N 34W 35W 36W 37W 38W40W 42W 44W 47W
TW 22N 73W74W 75W LOW LOWLOW LOW LOW LOW
TW 17N 105W 107W 108W 109W ------------------
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