505
FXUS06 KWBC 261902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEPTEMBER 26 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 06 2025
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FORECAST CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, BUT THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT CENTER IS RETROGRADING THROUGH THE PERIOD
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. NEAR-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA.
STRONG RIDGING OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC RESULTS IN WEAKER
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
AS THE TROUGH WITHDRAWS ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE WEST.
ALONG THE EAST COAST A PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION, AND ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
HAWAII-CON TOOL.
INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST
UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FOR THE SOUTHEAST,
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST, HURRICANE HUMBERTO, IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO
SEA. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NHC. THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT IT MAY CAUSE
IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALASKAN
MAINLAND, THEREFORE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREFERRED. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE, WHILE THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ALEUTIANS TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, EXCLUDING THE BIG
ISLAND, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL IS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TROPICS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 10 2025
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE FEATURE
IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PRIOR PERIOD BUT MAY BE THE RESULT OF INCREASED
ENSEMBLE SPREAD OVER TIME. THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA BUT MAY TRY TO
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF WEEK-2 ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA AND EASTERN SEABOARD BRING NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA TIED TO AN EXPANDING REGION OF ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER THE ARCTIC.
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE EARLY IN WEEK-2 COMBINED WITH INCREASING PACIFIC FLOW
SUPPORTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNALS IN THE TOOLS. SOME LINGERING
TROUGHING AND MOISTURE EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD REDUCES CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. IN THE
SOUTHEAST, CONTINUED CHANCES FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS NEAR OR INTO THE EAST COULD
ENHANCE MARITIME FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, REDUCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
THE CAROLINAS. TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED
BY THE CONSOLIDATED REFORECAST TOOL.
SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEAK ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED, LACKING MAJOR FEATURES AT THIS LEAD.
A PACIFIC FLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY FAVORS NEAR- TO WEAKLY
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FURTHER
INLAND, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND RAW TOOLS. AN AREA OF NEAR TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
WEEK-2 WHERE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP.
A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DISPLACED FROM THE POSSIBLE STORM TRACK.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WHERE CONTINUED
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUPPORTS AN UPTICK IN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS QUITE MIXED FOR ALASKA, SO MOST OF THE STATE IS ONCE AGAIN
FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT
AMONG THE TOOLS TO SUPPORT ADDING A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE- NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA INTERIOR. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS OVER MUCH OF HAWAII EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL IS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19551006 - 20010923 - 20040923 - 20051010 - 20090910
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010921 - 19551005 - 20040924 - 19920928 - 20051009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 02 - 06 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS B B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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