060
FXUS01 KWBC 262109
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
509 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 27 2025 - 00Z MON SEP 29 2025
...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND...
...SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE AROUND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ALL EYES WILL BE ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GULF MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
COUPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, ATMOSPHERIC LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER, WILL PRESENT THE THREAT OF REPEATING CLUSTERS
OF HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY BRING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEEING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON SATURDAY
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT
THE DYNAMICS FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE THAN
SATURDAY, SO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE SOIL SATURATION WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR AHEAD OF
POTENTIAL T.C. NINE AS IT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEADING OUT WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF AND SPIN OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
THE CUTOFF LOW SITS AND SPINS, IT WILL CONTINUOUSLY DRAW A FETCH
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S., SETTING
THE STAGE FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, INCREASING THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING OVER SENSITIVE TERRAIN LIKE BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS,
ETC... A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT ON
SATURDAY FOR THE DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN
ARIZONA, AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE CREEPS EASTWARD
WITH THE UPPER LOW. THEN, THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY AS IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, SO ANY RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE
PLANNED CAREFULLY.
POTENTIAL T.C. NINE LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY PRESENT
THE RISKS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
COASTAL FLOODING TO THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORMING STORM, BUT FOLKS IN THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD GET THEIR HURRICANE PLANS READY AND LISTEN TO
LOCAL OFFICIALS. FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, FOLLOW THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MORE OR LESS
DOMINATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF MUCH BEHIND IT.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
80S WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH 90 BY SUNDAY. IN STARK CONTRAST, FOR PLACES IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THAT ARE CLOUDIER AND STORMIER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WILDER/MILLER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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