250
FXUS01 KWBC 270809
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 27 2025 - 12Z MON SEP 29 2025
...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY INTO SUNDAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT CONTINUE UNDERNEATH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...WATCHING POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GULF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL
BE BENEFICIAL, PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS, BUT SOME MAY BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE FOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING EASES BY SUNDAY, WITH MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND JUST INLAND OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURGES OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO AND AROUND THE LOW,
PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. FOR TODAY, A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS STATES, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN
EFFECT. BY SUNDAY, THE BROADER MARGINAL RISK SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST TO INCLUDE MORE OF UTAH AND COLORADO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND, HIGHLIGHTING THE RELATIVELY
HIGHER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THE MOST VULNERABLE PLACES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, DRY ARROYOS, ETC. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT FORTUNATELY MOST OF
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE RECENTLY DESIGNATED POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE NINE AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH JUST ABOUT ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST,
AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CLEAR. HOWEVER, ANYONE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AND JUST INLAND
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AS THE STORM MAY BRING POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BE
CONCERNING, PARTICULARLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. IN THE MEAN TIME, NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS TO ENSURE YOU ARE READY TO TAKE
ACTION IN CASE THE NEED ARISES. AS ALWAYS, FOR THE LATEST
ADVISORIES AND OFFICIAL INFORMATION, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER'S WEBSITE AT NHC.NOAA.GOV.
MILLER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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