283
FXUS06 KWBC 271901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT SEPTEMBER 27 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07 2025
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FAVORED TO DEAMPLIFY
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN BREAKS DOWN, REPLACED BY
WIDESPREAD RIDGING WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST
CENTERED OVER QUEBEC, AND EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AS
WELL AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. TODAY’S MODEL
SOLUTIONS FEATURE AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC, RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN COAST
OF ALASKA.
STRONG RIDGING OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. ALONG THE EAST COAST
A PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OFFSHORE FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION,
AND ONSHORE MARITIME FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTH
SLOPE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII-CON TOOL.
INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FOR THE SOUTHEAST, THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE FIRST, HURRICANE HUMBERTO, IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA, WHILE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IS FAVORED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST. THERE REMAINS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT IT MAY
CAUSE IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALASKAN
MAINLAND, WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT AND DEEP LOW SURFACE PRESSURE NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT INDICATED FROM LATE WEEK-1 WELL INTO WEEK-2. THIS RESULTS IN ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALASKAN MAINLAND, WITH
CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH
THE HAWAII-CON TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TROPICS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2025
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE
FEATURE IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PRIOR PERIOD BUT MAY BE THE RESULT OF
INCREASED ENSEMBLE SPREAD OVER TIME. THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FAVORED TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS MOSTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
WEST COAST. WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC,
POTENTIALLY A WASHED-OUT SIGNAL FROM PROBABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND ALASKA IS
FAVORED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY DEPICT A
SLIGHT RETROGRESSION AND ELONGATION OF THE RIDGE.
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE EARLY IN WEEK-2 COMBINED WITH INCREASING PACIFIC FLOW
SUPPORTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNALS
IN THE TOOLS. SOME LINGERING TROUGHING AND MOISTURE EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
REDUCES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. IN THE SOUTHEAST, CONTINUED CHANCES FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS NEAR OR
INTO THE EAST COULD ENHANCE MARITIME FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. MOST FORECAST TOOLS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII,
SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATED REFORECAST TOOL.
SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEAK ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 AS THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED, LACKING MAJOR FEATURES AT THIS LEAD.
THE WEAK PACIFIC FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
MOSTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA DOES LITTLE TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. AN AREA OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING WEEK-2
WHERE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WHERE CONTINUED FRONTAL
ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUPPORTS AN UPTICK IN
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FOR ALASKA WITH CONTINUED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT AND GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT. THE WHOLE STATE TILTS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN MAINLAND,
SOUTHERN COAST, AND THE PANHANDLE. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19551006 - 19620926 - 19920927 - 19620911 - 19820907
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19551005 - 19820906 - 19920926 - 20010921 - 20020916
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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