888
FXUS01 KWBC 271920
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 28 2025 - 00Z TUE SEP 30 2025
...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT CONTINUE UNDERNEATH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS
EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFT UP
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GULF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL,
PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC GIVEN THE
RECENT DRY WEATHER, BUT SOME OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURGES OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO AND AROUND THE LOW,
PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND THUS CONCERNS FOR
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE NORMALLY DRY WASHES/ARROYOS
AND LOCAL BURN SCAR AREAS WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR IMPACTS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS DEPICTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF WESTERN ARIZONA, ALONG
WITH AREAS FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE THERE WILL BE LOCALLY CONCENTRATED AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BUT WILL BE FOCUSED A TAD FARTHER EAST AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS DEPICTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. CONDITIONS THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AND ALLOW
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS TO DIMINISH.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM THIS EVENING AND LIFT GRADUALLY UP OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS DOWN THOUGH EASTERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER, A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH JUST ABOUT ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM AT LEAST APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ANYONE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONSULT THE LATEST INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER CONCERNING THE FORECAST HAZARDS. IN THE MEANTIME, NOW IS
THE TIME TO REVIEW HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS TO ENSURE YOU ARE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IN CASE THE NEED ARISES. AS ALWAYS, FOR THE
LATEST ADVISORIES AND OFFICIAL INFORMATION, VISIT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER'S WEBSITE AT NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ORRISON/MILLER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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