032
FXUS01 KWBC 280801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 28 2025 - 12Z TUE SEP 30 2025
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WATCHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE DRYING
OUT SOME ON MONDAY...
...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE CAROLINAS AND
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTLINES. THE CONCERN THEN TURNS TOWARDS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND LIKELY STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE A DIRECT LANDFALL IS LOOKING MUCH
LESS PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, SURGES OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE,
SUPPORTING AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS RISK WILL LARGELY COME DOWN
TO HOW CLOSELY THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COMES TO THE COAST BEFORE IT
LIKELY STALLS AND MAKES A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST AND OUT TO SEA.
WHILE THE DETAILS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION STILL REMAIN
UNCLEAR, RESIDENTS OR THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE
THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AGAIN TODAY,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MORE VULNERABLE PLACES SUCH AS BURN SCARS,
SLOT CANYONS, DRY ARROYOS, ETC. THE RISK IS RELATIVELY HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE. FORTUNATELY, THE UPPER-LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE VERY STORMY PATTERN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ON ITS
WAY OUT, LEADING TO A MUCH DRIER FORECAST TO START THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AFTER THAT, THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SHIFT TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND BRINGS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR MANY. EVEN SOME
POCKETS OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. FOR PLACES THAT REMAIN STORMY AND
UNSETTLED WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN THAN SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MILLER
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