851
FXUS01 KWBC 290756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
VALID 12Z MON SEP 29 2025 - 12Z WED OCT 01 2025
...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IMELDA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...A SERIES OF PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WILL TRACK ACROSS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE
EAST, STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE, AND ACCELERATING WELL OUT TO
SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO IMELDA'S SHARP EASTWARD TURN,
SOME OF IT'S TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOL
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE. COMBINED, THE MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND
JUST INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS IMELDA WELL OFFSHORE, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAS
BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. IN FACT, THE GREATEST RISK FROM IMELDA
WILL LIKELY NOT BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, BUT FROM
SWELLS, HIGH SURF, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID,
TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN MORE VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
AFTER A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS PAST WEEKEND AND LAST
WEEK, THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOW SHIFT TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A
SERIES OF PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH INLAND. WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL COME AND GO THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TO
PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON, SOUTHERN IDAHO, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA TODAY, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ROUTINELY EXCEED 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME PLACES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST EXCEEDING 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THESE DEPARTURES TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S, 80S, AND EVEN LOW TO MID 90S FOR SOME. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WELL, WITH MOST
PLACES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S AT NIGHT.
MILLER
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