076
FXUS01 KWBC 301918
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VALID 00Z WED OCT 01 2025 - 00Z FRI OCT 03 2025
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUBSIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST; UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
AFTER A RAINY START TO THE WORK WEEK, MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
IMELDA TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, LEAVING CALM HIGH PRESSURE
AND FALL-LIKE WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
DRYING TREND WILL FALL OVER EASTERN FLORIDA, WHERE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE REPEATING NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
INCREASED WAVE ACTION GENERATED BY BOTH IMELDA AND HUMBERTO WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SWELLS, HIGH SURF, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OUT WEST, A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS
IN STORE FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC FRONTS
PUSH INLAND. THESE MOISTURE-LADEN FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODIC WAVES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN BURSTS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE
INCREASED PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONTS AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COASTS
OF THE U.S. AND CANADA IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE HEART OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES THE LAST
FEW DAYS. WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO GO NOWHERE ANYTIME SOON, THIS
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
ROUGHLY 15 AND 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, MAKING FOR A TOASTY END OF
SEPTEMBER AND START TO OCTOBER. A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS COULD FALL THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT.
ASHERMAN/MILLER
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