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FXUS06 KWBC 301949
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 30 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2025
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO START SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFYING, WITH SOME NET RETROGRADING EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
PERIOD. BROADLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH
THE GREATEST POSITIVE ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT
WESTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CNENS) AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS)
MEANS SHOW ANOMALIES TOPPING +18 DM ON THE SOUTHERN END OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WHILE THE GEFS MEAN IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER (ABOVE +12 DM), BUT THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THESE DIFFERENCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE MINIMAL. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
POTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES (CONUS) INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
MAXIMUM ANOMALIES OF +12 TO +18 DM COVERING NEW ENGLAND AND SOME ADJACENT
AREAS. BETWEEN THESE TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES, A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE CONUS EXPECTED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND SOME ADJACENT AREAS (-6 TO -12 DM).
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HEADS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE
THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST QUICKLY DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FARTHER
NORTH, THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN WESTERN CANADA PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WHILE WEAKENING, WITH 500-HPA
ANOMALIES OF +6 TO +12 DM STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE GREAT LAKES ON DAY 8. MEANWHILE, 500-HPA
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, WITH A POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE CNENS IS STRONGEST, SHARPEST, AND FARTHEST WEST WITH THIS RIDGE,
SHOWING ANOMALIES ABOVE +24 DM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDING MORE BROADLY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE 500-HPA RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD PER THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK DOWNSTREAM 500-HPA TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER EAST, GENERALLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THERE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY. THE PERIOD
ENDS WITH A PATTERN THAT HAS EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADED AND SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFIED
RELATIVE TO DAY 6, WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SHOWING A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST, AND A FLAT WEAKENING RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE STRENGTH
AND PRECISE LOCATIONS OF THESE FEATURES, ALL AGREE THAT THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
DEAMPLIFICATION PROGRESSES MORE QUICKLY THAN SHOWN BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY .
THE RIDGING THAT DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES QUICKLY FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHERE POSITIVE
500-HPA ANOMALIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, JUST SOUTH OF AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY, TROUGHING OVER OR NEAR THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS CLOSER TO NORMAL, SHOULD KEEP MEAN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THERE. RAW AND STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE
OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES ARE LESS CONSISTENT THAN FARTHER EAST, WHERE THESE
TOOLS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FAVORING WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. ACROSS
ALASKA, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE AND A MEAN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST NEAR THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD ESTABLISH A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE MAINLAND, WHICH FAVORS
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THERE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE BEST CHANCES COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST AND
PERSISTENTLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) NEARBY.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA SHOULD KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, A LATE-MONSOON SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE SOUTHWEST, WITH ALL MODELS CONSIDERABLY MORE ROBUST WITH MOISTURE INFLUX
THAN YESTERDAY. THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT ARIZONA, WITH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR WETNESS STRETCHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO AREAS
FARTHER NORTH. MOST TOOLS SHOW THE GREATEST TOTALS FALLING ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GEORGIA, WHERE ODDS FOR WETNESS EXCEED 50 PERCENT. THE
RAW AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AT BEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS, WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MEANWHILE, THE STRONG FETCH OF PACIFIC AIR INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA TYPICALLY BRINGS HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SURPLUS
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE. SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA IS AN EXCEPTION, WHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL UNDER A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MARGINALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE,
CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII-CON TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 11% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 7% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING THE DRIVING MID-LEVEL FEATURES IS
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAW, REFORECAST, AND BIAS-CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUTS. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION ANALOGS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH OTHER TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2025
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD WEAK TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST REBUILDS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. ACROSS THE CONUS, 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS
NORMAL, RESULTING IN SMALL MEAN 500-HPA NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR THE WEST COAST,
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS FARTHER EAST. BUT MEAN ANOMALIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW +6 DM IN THESE AREAS, AND BY THE END OF WEEK-2,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICTING NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
THROUGHOUT THE CONUS, CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION AND
GROWING DISPARITY AMONG THE FORECASTS FROM THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE EARLY IN WEEK-2, COMBINED THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING
AROUND THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST,
COMBINE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING WEEK-2. ODDS EXCEEDING 50% ARE ALMOST
UNIVERSAL EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH CHANCES TOPPING 70% FOR MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS NEAR A SECONDARY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT MAXIMUM.
MEANWHILE, WITH WEAK RELATIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST, ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 40%. TEMPERATURES FROM THE ENSEMBLES
ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN MOST TOOLS ACROSS AND NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION,
NEAR THE CENTER OF MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS
FAVORED HERE, BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE THAN IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS.
A CONTINUED LATE-MONSOON INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHWEST, KEEPING THE REGION WETTER THAN NORMAL. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE RAW ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT. THE FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE DRIER RAW OUTPUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE TOOLS’
INCONSISTENCY. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, BUT WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY EVOLVE TOWARD NORMAL AS WEEK-2 PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER ODDS THAN DURING
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION, WHICH ALSO
CONTINUES TO NOMINALLY FAVOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 9% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 6% OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 18% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 22% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EARLY DETERIORATES AS THE ARRAY OF
SOLUTIONS FROM THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN HEIGHT FIELDS SHIFT TOWARD NORMAL ACROSS THE CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IS FURTHER REDUCED BY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAW AND
STATISTICALLY-DERIVED ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. IN
PARTICULAR, THE RAW PRECIPITATION OUTPUT IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE
REFORECAST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20071008 - 19620926 - 19551008 - 19630920 - 19780921
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20071007 - 19620929 - 19630919 - 19551006 - 20010927
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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