993
FXCA20 KWBC 011804
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 1 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1800 UTC:
SYNOPSIS:
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM HURRICANES IMELDA AND HUMBERTO WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT FORMS OVER THE
BAHAMAS BY WAY OF THE SYSTEMS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL. IN MEXICO,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PROVIDE
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST, WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
COAST, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BRING
DAILY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COSTA RICA, PANAMA,
AND TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE CIRCULATION FROM THE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BRING
IN MOISTURE ONTO THE SHORES OF VERACRUZ OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY SUBTLE FLOW FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC
LOW-LEVEL JET. TODAY, THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH WILL
BE SUBTLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BRINGING MODERATE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF UP TO
20-45MM ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND TOTALS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH UP TO 25-50MM EXPECTED. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY WILL FURTHER AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED.
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO, MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COASTS, AS A MONSOON LOW BEGINS TO FORM.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, WITH UP TO 25KTS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP, INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE TERRAIN IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY, WITH A MAXIMUM
OF 25-50MM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS ONE OF INTEREST TO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, GIVING IT AN
80% OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS PER
THE LATEST OUTLOOK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST FOR ANY FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS.
BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
THE CONDITIONS IN THE BAHAMAS WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY THE
FORMATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
HURRICANE IMELDA. THE FRONT WILL FORM AS A COLD FRONT TODAY IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS, BEFORE STALLING AND REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, THE DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT STAYS IN PLACE, SO WILL THE RAIN, AND
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AND OF 25-50MM IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESPECTIVELY.
IN SOUTHEAST CUBA, MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION OF UP TO
20-35MM, LARGELY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE TOMORROW, AND ANY PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER IN CUBA WILL
BE LIGHT AND LOCALIZED SEASONABLE CONVECTION. IN HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA, SIMILAR LOCALIZED SEASONABLE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER COSTA RICA WILL FUNNEL IN
MOISTURE TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF
WIND AND MOISTURE ONSHORE TO THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BEGINNING ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING
PRECIPITATION, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 25-50MM IS EXPECTED ON THE WEST
COAST OF COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AN EASTERLY WAVE,
LOCATED AT 73W, IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHWEST
PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA, BEFORE EXITING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY TODAY, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20-35MM EXPECTED. IN CENTRAL
SOUTH AMERICA, EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM THE AMAZON INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE, WHERE
IT WILL THEN BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THIS ALONG WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20-45MM EXPECTED,
BEFORE LIGHTENING THEREAFTER AS A PLUME OF DRIER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
TW 17N 47W 49W 51W 52W 53W 54W 55W 56W 57W
TW 16N 56W DISS -----------
EW 17N 72W 74W 76W 78W 80W 82W 84W 85W 86W
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