777
FXCA20 KWBC 021843
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 2 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1900 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE BAHAMAS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD, PLACING ITS DIVERGENT SIDE OVER THE ISLANDS.
WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH MAXIMA
BETWEEN 40-80MM. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP OVER
CUBA AND THE HISPANIOLA FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THE BAHAMAS FROM SATURDAY
TO SUNDAY, AS THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES AND MOISTURE
DECREASES IN THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO, ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY
MIGHT CAUSE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, RAINFALL MIGHT BE LIMITED
DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE REGION.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OVER MEXICO AN AREA OF INTEREST FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
VERACRUZ AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM FROM 30 - 60MM, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER MEXICO WITH BASE OVER THE EASTERN
COAST WILL HAVE ITS DIVERGENT SIDE OVER VERACRUZ AND YUCATAN. FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASES IN THE REGION.
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO, INCLUDING GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WITH A 90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AVAILABLE, AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, IT
WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST IMPACT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH, OVER CHIAPAS AND GUATEMALA A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA WITH
ENHANCEMENT FROM A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY. IN CENTRAL AMERICA NICARAGUA MIGHT SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, AS AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
THIS EASTERLY WAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE ENHANCING INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS. THERE IS THE MONSOON
TROUGH ENHANCING CIRCULATION IN THE REGION THAT WILL FAVOR MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN, AND AN EASTERLY
WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY AS THE
ENVIRONMENT AT MID- TO UPPER LEVELS BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE.
SOUTH AMERICA:
IN SOUTH AMERICA AN AREA OF INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH MOIST FLOW COMING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, MAXIMUM
PRECIPITATION OF 20-50MM AROUND EACH DAY. OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE BORDER WITH PANAMA REGION FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY
FROM TODAY TO FRIDAY WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY, SLOWING DOWN
TOWARDS PERU AND ECUADOR ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION,
CAUSING PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
EASTERN COLOMBIA DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
HIGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA, WHICH ALONG WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SOME LOW-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS, AND BOTH THE GFS MODEL AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A DRYING
TREND PARTICULARLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12
TW 19N 50W 51W 52W 53W 54W 56W --- --- ---
EW 16N 78W 79W 81W 82W 84W 86W 88W 90W 92W
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