652
FXUS01 KWBC 030729
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2025
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 03 2025 - 12Z SUN OCT 05 2025
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CONSISTING OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES BY SATURDAY, A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST, AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW FORMING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE ROCKIES AS
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEEP UPPER TROUGH. BUT EAST OF THE ROCKIES, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
AREAS, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA. RECORD
HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ACROSS THESE AREAS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, RANGING FROM 15 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA,
IOWA, WESTERN WISCONSIN, AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RELIEF FROM
THIS HEAT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
THE WETTEST WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND
INTO FLORIDA AND VICINITY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA, AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE IN THE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS. FARTHER WEST,
SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNEAKS ONSHORE, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OFFSHORE.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
THOSE AREAS FRIDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER (HIGH WIND
AND HAIL THREATS). EXPECT RAIN AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SNOW
IS LIKELY. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ABSAROKA RANGE/BIGHORN MOUNTAINS FOR POSSIBLY
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
TATE/ORAVEC
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