374  
FXUS06 KWBC 041901  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT SAT OCTOBER 04 2025  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 14 2025  
 
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES  
ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. WHILE THE MOST  
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES IS GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE  
EASTERN HEMISPHERE, A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS PREDICTED JUST SOUTH OF THE  
ALASKA PENINSULA. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THIS RIDGE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO  
WEAKEN AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST  
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FARTHER TO THE EAST, RIDGING  
AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND  
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK TROUGHING IS PREDICTED ALONG THE  
EAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PREDICTED HEIGHT RISES ARE NOTED IN THE  
NORTHEAST THEREAFTER WHILE A WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WHILE BELOW NORMAL  
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED  
STRONG RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND,  
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS  
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING NEAR  
THE WEST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS  
HIGHEST ACROSS THE PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES,  
CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED RIDGE LOCATION.  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE COMPARATIVELY MODEST ACROSS THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD DUE TO PREDICTED WEAK TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
LIKELY FOR HAWAII (PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS), CONSISTENT  
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH  
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED TROUGH LOCATION NEAR THE WEST COAST.  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN OREGON DUE TO PREDICTED  
ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION ALSO EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CONVERSELY, BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST,  
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, DUE TO PREDICTED ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTH  
OF FORECASTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR THE TAIL  
END OF A PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF  
ALASKA DUE TO FORECAST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE STATE. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60  
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND WHERE THIS ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IS  
LIKELY TO BE THE GREATEST. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE  
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS. ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A  
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF  
ENSEMBLES.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18 2025  
 
DURING WEEK-2, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL PATTERN  
TRANSITION DURING THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG  
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEEP TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE  
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THIS RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET IS  
FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY, RESULTING IN ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS  
LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS COUPLET DE-AMPLIFIES, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS  
FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE  
PERIOD. THEREAFTER THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE MURKY AS THE ECMWF MEAN MAINTAINS  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE THE CANADIAN MEAN DEVELOPS A THROUGH  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE GEFS LANDING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. A WEAKNESS IN  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WITH  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS NOTED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CENTER  
OF THE PREDICTED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE WEST, ACROSS  
NORTHERN MEXICO. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII  
AS TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREDICTING A LOCAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT MINIMUM NEAR  
THE ISLAND CHAIN.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO  
PREDICTED MEAN ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED,  
PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN  
MAINLAND, WELL AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS,  
CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE PREDICTED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS  
AND THE TROUGH FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII (PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
ISLANDS), CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO MEAN TROUGHING  
PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH  
LOCATION SUPPORTS ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALMOST THE  
ENTIRE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH, COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST, LEADS TO PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE WEST. DOWNSTREAM, PREDICTED  
RIDGING AND MULTIPLE AREAS OF MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,  
GREAT LAKES, INLAND AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST, AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA  
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS  
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN  
BERING SEA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW.  
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT  
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING EARLY IN THE  
PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATER.  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A  
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF  
ENSEMBLES.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN LATER IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.  
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT H  
 
NOTES:  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
OCTOBER 16.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20040920 - 20080922 - 20071006 - 19850914 - 19621003  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20040921 - 19850916 - 20040926 - 20071003 - 20070921  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 14 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A  
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A  
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N  
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N  
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N  
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B  
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B  
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B  
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B  
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B  
PENN A B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B  
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N  
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 18 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A  
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N  
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B  
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N  
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B  
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B  
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B  
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N  
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N  
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B  
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N  
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N  
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 
 
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