398  
FXUS06 KWBC 051901  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT SUN OCTOBER 05 2025  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 15 2025  
 
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A MORE  
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A STRONG  
ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS PREDICTED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS TIME  
PROGRESSES, THIS RIDGE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE  
ZONAL. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.  
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR WEST. FARTHER TO THE EAST, RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS  
ARE INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT  
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. A MORE  
AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS FIVE DAY PERIOD. NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AS TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS  
ARE PREDICTING A LOCAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT MINIMUM NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN.  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE  
CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH HAS  
TRENDED STRONGER AND FARTHER TO THE EAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN AN  
INCREASE IN CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES NOW EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, OREGON,  
AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. WITH THIS TROUGH STRONGER IN TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS,  
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN  
CONUS, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS  
THESE REGIONS. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FOR PARTS  
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, REPLACING THE SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE DEPICTED  
YESTERDAY, AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION HAS TRENDED STRONGER. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING ACROSS  
THE MAINLAND. THIS RIDGE HAS TRENDED WEAKER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY SO ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACCORDINGLY. BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST  
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII (PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
ISLANDS), CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE  
WEST COAST. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY DUE TO PREDICTED ENHANCED  
PACIFIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
ALSO EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR  
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT  
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR  
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST, DUE TO PREDICTED ENHANCED  
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF FORECASTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
NORTHEAST. POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT INCREASES ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO  
FORECAST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
STATE. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS  
OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND WHERE THIS ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE THE  
GREATEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT  
WITH A CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND  
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WITH A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS IN DEPICTING A MORE AMPLIFIED  
500-HPA PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 19 2025  
 
DURING WEEK-2, ALL OF TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A TRANSITION TO A MORE  
ZONAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THIS SEVEN  
DAY PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE BERING  
SEA AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  
DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER OR JUST INLAND OF THE  
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN  
CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE PATTERN  
BECOMES MARKEDLY LESS AMPLIFIED AS ZONAL, PACIFIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE  
CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. A WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS  
GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS NOTED FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA  
PENINSULA. THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST  
FARTHER TO THE WEST, ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AS TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS  
ARE CONTINUING TO PREDICT A LOCAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT MINIMUM NEAR THE ISLAND  
CHAIN.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS  
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THESE REGIONS.  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND  
MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS SEVEN  
DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, BUT WITH  
REDUCED CONFIDENCE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE FROM  
THE BERING SEA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH MODESTLY ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE  
CONUS, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING  
JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
LIKELY FOR HAWAII (PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS), CONSISTENT  
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED  
WITH MEAN TROUGHING PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE  
PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH LOCATION SUPPORTS ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND EXTENDING  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH, COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, LEADS TO PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND  
SOUTHWEST. DOWNSTREAM, PREDICTED RIDGING AND MULTIPLE AREAS OF MEAN SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER HALF  
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MUCH OF  
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND MUCH OF THE  
NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MEAN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT  
AREAS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST DUE TO PREDICTED ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND  
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO PERSIST  
ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSOLIDATION  
OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTIES  
REGARDING A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF  
THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD.  
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT H  
 
NOTES:  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
OCTOBER 16.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19830929 - 20040920 - 19850915 - 20070923 - 20081011  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19850916 - 20070921 - 19830930 - 20061004 - 20081011  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 15 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A  
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A  
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B  
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N  
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B  
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B  
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B  
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B  
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N  
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N  
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N  
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N B  
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 19 2025  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A  
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N  
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N  
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A  
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N  
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B  
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B  
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B  
MASS A B CONN A N RHODE IS A N  
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N  
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N  
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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