550
FXUS01 KWBC 071932
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
331 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2025
VALID 00Z WED OCT 08 2025 - 00Z FRI OCT 10 2025
...HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
...THREAT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY...
...MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY WITH AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A MORE WIDESPREAD
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY HAS PROMPTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE THREAT OF
SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY WITH STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
FLORIDA AS WELL.
TO THE WEST, VERY MOIST, POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR MORE TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS LIKE BURN
SCARS. STORMS CHANCES WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THEN, ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE FROM
PRISCILLA IN THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST, WITH THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST, SHOWER CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH THE CHANCE SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR SOME OF
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
TUESDAY IS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST COAST, ESPECIALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND, WHERE
HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORD LEVELS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER,
FALL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN 20S AND 30S PROMPTING FROST AND
FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, IN
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, A WARM UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ARE UPWARDS OF 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND
LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS. WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR WEST AS WELL, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, WHILE THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A COOL DOWN
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE
60S AND 70S.
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