727
FXUS01 KWBC 090801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2025
VALID 12Z THU OCT 09 2025 - 12Z SAT OCT 11 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA MOVES
NORTH...
...COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH SURF, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS THIS
WEEK...
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA, MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD, INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN, HEIGHTENING THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
BEGIN TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA,
SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL FURTHER
ELEVATE THIS RISK AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS
THREAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING FOR TERRAIN-SENSITIVE
AREAS, INCLUDING BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND URBAN REGIONS.
IN THE EASTERN U.S., A FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FLORIDA. STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WILL ALSO
HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS, INCLUDING FLOODING,
HEAVY SURF, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. BY EARLY SATURDAY, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
BEFORE TRACKING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER, BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S HAVE
PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING, AND FOR
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN CONTRAST, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S, AND SOME 90S IN TEXAS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SLOWLY APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE WEST COAST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
70S TO THE SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING LATE
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY, SPREADING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
PEREIRA
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