707
FXUS06 KWBC 091923
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 09 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 19 2025
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (-NAO) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG RIDGING
NEAR GREENLAND, AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC, ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND TROUGHING IS
PREDICTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS RESPECTIVELY,
WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THESE FEATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA INTO THE BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALASKA BY DAY-10.
TODAY’S MANUAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
EASTERN ALASKA EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDE
R, AND INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDI
CATED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS, PARTS OF THE SOUTH
WESTERN CONUS AND GREAT BASIN, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. NEAR-NORMAL H
EIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, WITH A WEAKNESS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHE
RN ISLANDS AROUND OR JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASED CHANCES F
OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKIES DU
E TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING PACI
FIC FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER COMPARED TO FARTHER
SOUTH. CONVERSELY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE CE
NTRAL CONUS TIED TO RIDGING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PER
CENT) ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +10 DEG
F ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS AND GEFS. WHILE TH
E REFORECAST TOOLS LEAN WARMER COMPARED TO THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS ACROSS THE MID
-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, ANALOGS AND TELECONNECTIONS AS WELL AS THE EVOLVING -NA
O FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DUE TO TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA AND RIDGING OVER SOUT
HEAST ALASKA SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALA
SKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING IN THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASED MO
ISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE
-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH M
ODELS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PROBAB
ILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CONUS CLOSER TO THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST A
LASKA. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN NEARLY ALL OF
THE FORECAST TOOLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONU
S EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 6-10 PRECI
PITATION TOTALS FROM THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUAR
TER-INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SUPPORTS
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHES
T CHANCES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE NOR
THERN GULF COAST STATES. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SLIGHTLY TILTING THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL PR
ECIPITATION. TROUGHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF ALASKA
, INCREASING TO THE WEST. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO PREDICTED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. A
BOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES A
CROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS
OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUR
OPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE M
EAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVE
RAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 23 20
25
DURING WEEK-2, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PREDICTED TO
DE-AMPLIFY, WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE -NAO. THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TROUGHING SPREADING FROM WESTERN ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATER IN THE PERIOD RESULTING I
N HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE PACIF
IC NORTHWEST. TODAY’S WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS GENERALLY TIED TO STRONGER A
NOMALIES EARLIER IN THE PERIOD, AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERI
OD, EXCEPT WEAKER IN MAGNITUDE AS A FASTER, MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATT
ERN DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS EASTERN AL
ASKA AND OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AREAS OF NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDIC
ATED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, THE WESTERN CONUS, AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NOR
THEAST. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATUR
ES OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE BEING A T
REND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWEST, AS
PACIFIC FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THI
S SLIGHTLY TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NO
RTHWEST, WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING OVER PART
S OF THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS R
EFORECAST TOOLS AND TIED TO ENHANCED RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS DISCUSSED I
N THE 6-10 OUTLOOK, THE -NAO ALONG WITH UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHER CHA
NCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTH
EAST. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS AL
ASKA UNDERNEATH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORE
CAST FOR HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
THE DE-AMPLI
FYING MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS RESULTS IN DECREASING SIGNALS FOR PRECI
PITATION DURING WEEK-2. HOWEVER, INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIS
SISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGHING SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY FURTHER ELE
VATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-C
ENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO TH
E 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED A
CROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOW PRE
SSURE DEVELOPMENT. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40 PERCENT) SHIFTING INTO T
HE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE
OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEM
BLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED O
N DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FOR
ECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A D
E-AMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FO
R THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABL
ES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH >
33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSH
ADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (D
ASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MOR
E LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATI
ON MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN,
"B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PE
RIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PR
OBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALW
AYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WIL
L BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NOR
MAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CA
SES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPIT
ATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFER
ENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OU
TLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 2025-10-09.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATT
ERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E T
O 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
1961
1018 - 20050923 - 19980923 - 19710922 - 19701006
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBS
ERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE
AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DA
TES:
19611018 - 19710922 - 20050923 - 19831010 - 19980923
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TA
BLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 19 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B A NRN CALIF
B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH
B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A
A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KAN
SAS A A OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A
B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A
MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN
A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNES
SEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N
N NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS B A CON
N B N RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B
N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N
VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA
A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S I
NT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 23 2025
STATE T
EMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N
OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO
N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A
WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORA
DO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A
A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N
TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA
A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N
LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIP
PI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N
KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YO
RK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE A
N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PE
NN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND
B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B
S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN
A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A
AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNH
DL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORM
AL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE
N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSE
S REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROS
S SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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