380
FXUS01 KWBC 092011
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2025
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 10 2025 - 00Z SUN OCT 12 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE PRISCILLA MOVES NORTH...
...A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FLOODING, HIGH SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR BOTH THE
WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
MOISTURE ORIGINATED FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD THROUGH
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY, THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS FORECAST.
MEANWHILE, A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING FOR TERRAIN-SENSITIVE
AREAS, INCLUDING BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND URBAN REGIONS. THE
HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME LESS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER, ON THE HEELS OF
PRISCILLA'S MOISTURE WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WHOSE
MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST REACH SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA LATER ON
SATURDAY.
IN THE EASTERN U.S., AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING
ANOTHER DOSE OF COOL, FAIR, AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONT THAT HAS
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM. A COMPLEX INTERACTION AMONG THESE
THREE WEATHER SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST FLORIDA AND SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES, HEIGHTENING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS,
INCLUDING FLOODING, HEAVY SURF, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. BY
LATER ON SATURDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN SHORES OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER, BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE 50S TO 60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S HAVE
PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
IN CONTRAST, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S,
AND SOME 90S IN TEXAS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
WEST COAST, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 70S
TO THE SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING LATE
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO TONIGHT, SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
KONG/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page