914
FXUS01 KWBC 100802
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 10 2025 - 12Z SUN OCT 12 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SECOND AREA OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...
ON FRIDAY, MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH
FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS. THE FLOODING MAY INCLUDE
DEBRIS FLOWS IN OR NEAR RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE FLOODING MAY
INCLUDE DEBRIS FLOWS IN OR NEAR RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.
IN ADDITION, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INLAND, SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO, ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST, MOVING TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE
MOST VULNERABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
FLORIDA AND ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE RAIN
WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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