336
FXCA20 KWBC 101744
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1745 UTC:
NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO PRODUCTION OF PRODUCTS ON MONDAY, OCTOBER
13TH, DUE TO FEDERAL HOLIDAY OBSERVANCE. PRODUCTS WILL RESUME ON
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14TH.
SYNOPSIS:
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO, ESPECIALLY IN
MICHOACAN, TODAY AND SATURDAY. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE TAKEN BY A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVE INLAND
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO, BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA, SONORA, AND CHIHUAHUA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN COSTA RICA, A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT DAILY
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL IMPACT THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA,
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER. THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL STORM JERRY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE REGION ON
SATURDAY
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK OFFSHORE
AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH RAYMOND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ONSHORE ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STORM AND WILL YIELD HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF UP TO
25-50MM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN MICHOACAN. ON SATURDAY, THE
SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL
STEER IT TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN SONORA, WEST CHIHUAHUA, AND BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT AS IT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE A MAXIMUM OF 150-200MM, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF OVER 200+ ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE ONGOING LOW-LEVEL INDUCED TROUGH EVENT ON THE EAST COAST OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING TODAY, WITH RAINFALL GRADUALLY DYING
DOWN TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY, AND TOTALS OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH VERACRUZ,
AND SOUTH TAMAULIPAS. THIS AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A REPRIEVE FROM
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
IN COSTA RICA, A LONG FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, AND ENTER INTO THE COAST TODAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG, AROUND 25KTS, WITH
ABUNDANT PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST, IT WILL
BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, UP TO 30-60MM
TODAY, AND 40-80MM ON SATURDAY.
IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONCURRENTLY IMPACT CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS, WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS, AND WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION, WILL YIELD HIGH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING FAR SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, TO AROUND
18N, TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
ENHANCED IN THIS REGION. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING IN FLORIDA,
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL IMPACT THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN EVEN
AFTER THE WEEKEND, WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS THE FRONT STALLS. PRECIPITATION WILL PEAK AT AROUND
25-50MM IN CUBA, AND 30-60MM IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES, TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO, AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. SOUTHERLY REMNANT MOISTURE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH AND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER ITS DEPARTURE ON SUNDAY. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY, WITH UP TO
30-60MM EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, AND 25-50MM EXPECTED IN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
SOUTH AMERICA WILL AID IN SUPPLYING MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS INCOMING MOISTURE WILL FLOW IN
FROM THE WEST AND INTERACT WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA, AND WILL BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
DAILY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF UP
TO 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN WESTERN COLOMBIA, STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WILL
ENTER THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND WILL BRING SEASONABLE
AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION ON WEST COLOMBIA
WILL BE HEAVIEST ON SATURDAY, WITH UP TO 40-80MM EXPECTED. ON
SUNDAY, AN EASTERLY INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED BY THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA, WHICH WILL BRING
HEAVY LOCALIZED CONVECTION, WITH TOTALS OF UP TO 30-60MM EXPECTED.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00
EW 18N 45W 49W 52W 55W 57W 59W 62W 64W
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