464
FXUS06 KWBC 101910
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 10 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 20 2025
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (-NAO) WITH RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE 0Z
GEFS FAVORS A FLATTER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS BY DAY-9. ALL OF THE MODELS DEPICT AN INCREASE IN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS NEAR-TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA LEADS
TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RESULTING IN ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, WITH A WEAKNESS PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AROUND OR JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING. CONVERSELY, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO RIDGING,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +10 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS AND GEFS. DESPITE THE -NAO, WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE
TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EMERGING ACROSS THE CONUS. THE 0Z ECENS
DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAY-10,
WITH THE GEFS AND CMCE RELATIVELY COOLER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DUE
TO STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ACROSS THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
THE TREND TOWARD MORE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST FAVORS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND EXTENDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
SPREADING FURTHER TO THE EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD, PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ARE
GREATLY REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE ODDS OF
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TROUGHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, INCREASING TO THE WEST. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TIED TO PREDICTED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.
AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DECREASING
AMPLIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD AND SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN BECOMES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DECREASING AMPLIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN BECOMES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 24 2025
DURING WEEK-2, MODELS DEPICT A LOW-AMPLITUDE, BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISCREPANCY AS DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS THE 0Z
GEFS KEEPS TROUGHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COMPARED TO
THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE WHICH FAVOR A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THERE ALSO
REMAINS A GENERAL TENDENCY TOWARD MORE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING ADDITIONAL TROUGHING
SPREADING FROM WESTERN ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATER IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE COASTAL NORTHEAST.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A BROAD WEAKNESS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA TIED TO
TROUGHING, WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, WITH THE
LARGEST CHANGE BEING A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TIED TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING. AS A RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BASED ON COOLER SIGNALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS
AND LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE -NAO. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST UNDERNEATH WEAK
TROUGHING AND RESULTANT UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA UNDERNEATH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
PERIODIC TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND POTENTIAL LEE CYCLOGENESIS SUPPORT A
BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ADDITIONAL TROUGHING SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY FURTHER
ELEVATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SIGNALS ARE MORE MIXED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED
0Z GEFS FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, BUT STRONGER SIGNALS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE ECENS AND ITS CORRESPONDING REFORECAST TOOL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, AND THE
EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD CORRESPONDING WITH
WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS COMPARED TO
FURTHER WEST. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40 PERCENT) OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN
AND THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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