253
FXUS02 KWBC 130755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID 12Z THU OCT 16 2025 - 12Z MON OCT 20 2025
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD MID-LARGER SCALE
AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN EVOLUTION INITIALLY HIGHLIGHTED
BY A WESTERN U.S. DEEP TROUGH AND A DOWNSTREAM BUILDING/WARMING
RIDGE SET TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S.. THIS
TRANSLATION OCCURS WITH ADVENT OF ANOTHER AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SLATED TO BREACH THE WEST COAST IN ABOUT A WEEK.
FORECAST SPREAD SEEMS MANAGEABLE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND A 18 UTC
GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODEL BLEND SEEMS FINE. OPTED
TO THEN SWITCH TO AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND BY THE WEEKEND AMID PESKY
ENBEDDED SYSTEM AND STREAM SEPARATION VARIANCES. LEANED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHOSE SOMEHWAT MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION SEEMS TO BEST FIT THE ONGOING AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THIS
SOLUTION ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST AND THE LATEST 00 UTC MODEL TRENDS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A CURRENT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE WORKING WELL OUT TO SEA
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE
WEEK AS ENHANCED AS IMPULSES DIG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM.
AN UPPER LOW/AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL WORK OVER THE ROCKIES TO INCREASINGLY EFFECT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. MID-LATE WEEK TO INCLUDE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH WAVY SURFACE SYSTEM TRANSLATION. MORE MOISTURE-LADEN AIR TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT A GROWING PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY MAY FLOURISH AS FOCUS SHIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
U.S. STATES INTO NEXT WEEKEND IN AN EMERGING RETURN FLOW PATTERN TO
MONITOR FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL AND RUNOFF ISSUE POTENTIAL.
LATER PERIOD, THE UPSTREAM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO GROW IN SUPPORT OF
APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHEAST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND TO OFFER UNSETTLED FLOW
AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THREAT TO MONITOR.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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